Wild pokémon have the same catch rate when they are Asleep, Paralyzed, or have no status problem at all. I did NOT test other ailments.

This is easiest to confirm in situations where you're supposedly guaranteed to catch a pokémon so I'll post a couple examples.

1.- normal pokéball thrown to an asleep 1hp metapod should be a guaranteed catch but is not, details:
Sleep is easiest to confirm since it has such a huge x2.5 catch chance bonus so,
Let's grab any pokémon with 120 Catch Rate (Metapod)
False Swipe it down to 1hp and depending on its hp we should get an effective catch rate of about 117 which means 47% to catch it with a normal ball or 82.3% per ball shake
We put it to sleep and apply the sleep bonus (117 * 2.5 ) = 292 total effective catch rate (114% of catching the pokémon using a normal pokéball)
it should be a guaranteed catch but in practice the sleep bonus isn't applied and we still get the unchanged 47% catch chance

2.- normal pokéball paralyzed 1hp whismur (190 catch rate)
even if it has like 2 or 3 hp left should get you at least ~276 total effective catch rate ( 108% of catching pokémon )
in practice it's just ~184 (72% of catching)

paralyze is supposed to apply x1.5 bonus to the catch rate so just to make sure it's actually the status condition's fault we grab another 1hp whismur and instead of paralyzing it we throw a Great Ball (also x1.5 bonus) at it, suddenly our catch rate works as expected! (over 100% guaranteed)

Thanks for the report. I don't know a lot about the specifics of this but your calculations seem to work out and I was able to replicate the findings so I've moved this along to our internal tracker to be looked into.